This report is current for  December 2018.  When I talk with perspective sellers this time of year, a very common comment is …” We are going to wait until Spring….”.   I understand that this is a common perception.  But I have tracked our market for the last 10 years.    I always review the current inventory on a monthly basis throughout the year.
On any given year, the inventory of Active homes is always less in January- February as compared to June- August.  I have found that the listing inventory decreases on any given year by about 20-40% in our market.  However looking at the same time period, the actually closed sales goes down by only 10%.
So if you are a Home seller, you will have less competition over the winter months than during the summer.
My recommendation is always the same.  Rather than wait until spring, get your home on the market early and beat the competition.
Here are some other advantages to having your home on the market over the Holidays.
  • Buyers who are looking during the holiday season tend to be a more serious buyer.
  • There may be some tax advantages that will help to motivate buyers to close the sale by year end.
  • Some buyers may be looking to relocate prior to the start of the next school semester.
  • Buyers will tend to have more time to look for homes over the holidays.

 

But what if I am a buyer?????  My concern is the interest rates.  This point is going to become dated depending on what happens with interest rates on mortgages in 2019.

Last fall of 2017, Buyers will still able to get an interest rate around 4%.   But now interest rates are around 5%.  Historically 5% is still a great rate.   But this increase has translated into a 18-22% decrease in purchasing power…ouch.

My concern is will  rates continue to rise again on 2019?   That 1% rise over the last 12 months may “sound small” and that there should not be a major effect on the market.  But when the loan officers are calculating income to debt ratios, that rise in interest rates had a significant effect on purchasing power.

At ever price point, there is less buyers available because of this increase in the interest rates.

 

I always look forward to questions on the market or real estate.  Please call/text me at 916-257-0893 or email frank@frankvalente.com